The Economic Survey for 2022-23 was tabled in the Parliament on Tuesday, January 31, 2023, a day ahead of the Union Budget presented under Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran.
The Economic Survey comes a day before the Union Budget for every fiscal year on the 1st day of February. This prolific and comprehensive document provides a summary of India's annual economic growth as well as outlines the economy's medium and short-term prospects. In simpler words, Economic Survey tells the economic condition of the country and acts as a barometer to measure the economic progress that has been made to date.
The first Economic Survey of India was presented in 1950-51. Until 1964 it was presented along with the general budget of the country. Later, however, it started being presented a day before the budget breaking a long line of imperialist tradition in the process, which had been in continuum from the days of the British Raj.
The document is prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs in the Finance Ministry under the overall guidance of the Chief Economic Adviser. After receiving inputs from the senior officers in the Ministry of Finance, the final version of the Economic Survey is scrutinized by the Finance Secretary and finally approved by the Union Finance Minister. This Year Economic Survey for 2022-23 has been prepared under Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
Economic Survey generally comprises of two volumes, but last year this was summarized under one volume. This is year it has again been expanded to encompass three volumes. This year Cover of Economic Survey 2022-2023 highlights the importance of G20.
Economic Survey 2022-23 highlights:
Real GDP growth to be in the range of 6-6.8% next fiscal depending on global economic, political developments as against a projected growth of 7% in the current financial year. Nominal growth is likely to be at 11% for 2023-24.
RBI estimated 6.8% of retail inflation for 2022-23.
The fiscal deficit of the government, which reached 9.2 per cent of GDP during the pandemic year FY21, has moderated to 6.7 per cent of GDP in FY22 and is further budgeted to reach 6.4 per cent of GDP in FY23.
Credit growth to the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector has been remarkably high, over 30.6%, on average during Jan-Nov 2022
The capital expenditure of the central government, which increased by 63.4 per cent in the first eight months of FY23, was another growth driver of the Indian economy in the current year, crowding in the private Capex since the January-March quarter of 2022
Global growth is forecasted to slow from 3.2 per cent in 2022 to 2.7 per cent in 2023
The banking sector in India has also responded in equal measure to the demand for credit as the Year-on-Year growth in credit since the January-March quarter of 2022 has moved into double-digits and is rising across most sectors.
Rupee performing better than most other currencies however, cautioned that the challenge of the depreciating rupee, although better performing than most other currencies, persists with the likelihood of further increases in policy rates by the US Fed.
IMF estimates India to be one of the top two fast-growing significant economies in 2022.
Manufacturing and investment activities gained traction.
The survey “release of pent-up demand” was reflected in the housing market too, as demand for housing loans picked up. housing inventories have declined, prices are firming up, and construction of new dwellings is picking up pace and this has stimulated innumerable backward and forward linkages that the construction sector is known to carry. The universalization of vaccination coverage also has a significant role in lifting the housing market as, in its absence, the migrant workforce could not have returned to construct new dwellings.
The banking sector in India has also responded in equal measure to the demand for credit as the Year-on-Year growth in credit since the January-March quarter of 2022 has moved into double-digits and is rising across most sectors.
Corporate tax collection, which was severely impacted in FY21 due to the covid-19 pandemic, has jumped 85% in the current financial year from a low base, alongside big improvements in income tax and GST takings.
Importance and Relevance of Economic Survey
The Economic Survey works as an important tool for creating the Union budget as it provides feedback as well as serves as a guide by delineating the Finance Ministry's priorities for the upcoming financial year. It facilitates a bird’s eye view of the trends noticed in different sectors over the previous year like agriculture, manufacturing, employment, infrastructure, prices, exports, imports, foreign exchange reserve, and money supply for example. It highlights the government’s policy initiatives, reviews the performance of development programs and discusses the prospects of the economy in the short- and medium-term scenarios. Most Importantly, the survey projects the gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and provides an insight into the economic outlook for the country.
It pinpoints the quality of policy responses needed under the prevailing economic situation.
SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
The government has been implementing a number of changes since 2014 to enhance the social infrastructure in rural India. This includes universally subsidised housing, where more than 2 crore homes were built through the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Gramin. Additionally, 11 crore tap connections were made and about 3 crore homes were electrified. Ayushman Bharat, skill development programmes, insurance programmes, connectivity via all-weather highways, and clean cooking fuel are just a few examples of social infrastructure improvements. The quality of life for people living in villages has improved overall as a result of this variety of activities. Numerous such indicators are documented in the Economic Survey 2023. The penetration of the Jal Jeevan Mission has been one of the biggest success stories. The initiative, which was included in the 2019 budget, has expanded significantly since it was first introduced. There were many reasons why the Jal Jeevan Mission was significant. According to the NITI Aayog's Composite Water Resources Management Index, several states in the North East and the Himalayan region lacked adequate drinking water infrastructure prior to 2019. Only 17% of rural homes in Meghalaya had access to a water supply for drinking. The proportion was 35 in Sikkim whereas it was 46 and 52 in Nagaland and Tripura, respectively. 56% of rural habitations in Uttarakhand, one of the top destinations for religious travel, had access to drinking water. The percentage was 60% in Assam. More than 90% of rural habitations in states like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, and Tamil Nadu had access to drinking water. Kerala (22%), Karnataka (33%), Telangana (55%), Bihar (61%) and Punjab (67%) were the states that require urgent attention with regard to the supply of drinking water. Therefore, just 49% of the rural population had access to clean drinking water prior to the Jal Jeevan Mission. As a result, India had a population larger than the United States that lacked access to clean drinking water. Also worth mentioning is the direct benefit transfer (DBT) programme, which has revolutionised how rural assistance is implemented. For instance, more than 650 million people in India didn't have bank accounts prior to 2015. The government was forced to use panchayat bank accounts in order to transmit payments under the MGNREGS and several other welfare programmes. Additionally, the employees had to go to the gram panchayat office to pick up their cash wages. Two issues came about as a result. Firstly, financial leakages, and secondly, connectivity. In India's villages, there were 115,350 banking locations as of March 2014, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Many more rural labourers from MGNREGS were further alienated from the workforce due to the issue of delayed payments and geographic isolation. Rural workers now have better access to public welfare programmes, healthcare, and other formal financial instruments thanks to the Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile (JAM) trinity, which has also significantly increased their involvement in India's effort to become a $5 trillion economy.
Quality of rural lives – findings from the National Family Health Survey
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
India's industries have been hammered by the double whammy of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, as has been the case globally. While the pandemic disrupted demand, manufacturing, and production, the unexpected war last year resulted in a rise in commodity prices, putting pressure on transportation costs, investments, and so on. As a result, demand fell. According to the Economic Survey 2023, industries in India fared well in fiscal year 2023 (FY23) compared to the previous fiscal year. Steel, electricity, construction, mining, chemicals, automobiles, textiles, cement, and pharmaceutical investments have all increased. It should be noted that much of this is due to the pent-up demand from the previous two Covid years. India's manufacturing sector has experienced a significant rebound. Given the increasing demand following the Covid outbreak and people returning to their pre-pandemic routines, food and beverages, clothing, leather, and associated products all experienced significant growth in 2022.The manufacturing of petroleum, chemical, and basic metal products has also increased. With higher sales, the year 2022 was also notable for automakers. Prior to the war-induced inflation taking control, the first part of FY23 saw a spike in exports that was also aided by global demand. The credit expansion across several industries is another indicator of the robust industrial optimism. The majority of industries saw positive credit deployment for FY23 when compared year over year. It's no secret that the Narendra Modi administration is obsessed with setting up a semiconductor manufacturing facility in India, and in the grand scheme of things, this passion is healthy. The survey uses the semiconductor sector as an illustration to emphasise the significance of PLI methods. In September 2022, the Indian government approved a comprehensive programme with a budget of Rs 76,000 crore, or almost $10 billion. 50% of the capital expenses that the investing corporations would incur will be financially supported by the government. A growing demand for a digitised economy with supply-side constraints, dependence on China in the face of border conflicts with India and trade wars with the United States, supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly in light of the impending reunification of Taiwan by force or other means, and incentives for willing semiconductor manufacturers looking to establish operations in India all call for immediate investments. The Indian government must continue to show its commitment to this effort, even if it means providing $20 billion in incentives over a ten-year period. It must also take the initiative and launch a programme like Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (JASM). By 2035, if current trends continue, India may not become self-sufficient in high-end semiconductors, but local firms may end up dominating the market for fundamental chips used in everyday appliances or autos. The dependence of the Indian pharmaceutical business on China has been another supply chain lesson learned from the pandemic. The government is correcting this mistake via the production-linked incentive (PLI). According to a March 2022 article, the production linked programme for the pharmaceuticals industry had begun in India and was producing 35 active medicinal components that had previously been imported.
32 new API (active pharmaceutical ingredient) production facilities have been established as part of the PLI initiative, and 35 of the 53 selected APIs are currently in production. 35 APIs, which were formerly imported, now account for 90% of India's dependency. However, as part of the PLI programme, India has recently begun producing these APIs. This will ultimately have a direct impact on India's pharmaceutical exports and FDI (foreign direct investment) intake into the industry, even outside of the PLI scheme.
Steady Growth in Components of Index of Core Industries
Sector-wise FDI Equity Inflows in 2022-23 during April-September 2022
FISCAL DEVELOPMENT
The ongoing global risks and uncertainties have made availability of fiscal space with government preeminent. Following the pandemic, fiscal policy became an effective macroeconomic stabilisation tool for reviving the economy.
The fiscal deficit of union government which reached 9.2% of GDP during the pandemic year FY21 has moderated to 6.7% of GDP and is now expected to reach 6.4% of GDP in FY23. The gradual decline in fiscal deficit has been possible due to careful fiscal management through buoyancy in revenues from direct taxes and GST.
Excise duties have acted as a flexible policy tool Like as government raised excise duties on petrol and diesel to increase the revenue pool. The budget estimate factored in negative growth of 15% on excise collection which declined by 20.9%
Union government’s emphasis on capital expenditure(capex) has continued despite higher revenue expenditure during the year. The centre’s capex has steadily increased from a long term average of 1.7% of GDP to 2.5% of GDP.
State government improved its finance after being hit by the pandemic. The combined fiscal deficit of states, which increased to 4.1% of GDP in pandemic-affected year was brought down to 2.8% in FY22 pa.
Talking about the debt profile of the government, IMF projects the global government debt at 91% of GDP in 2022 (IMF fiscal monitor)
MONETARY DEVELOPMENT
A cumulative hike of nearly 225 bps each in the policy repo rate was implemented and adopted by the Monetary Policy Committee over the course of the last financial year. RBI’s move to hike the CRR by 50 bps resulted in a withdrawal of primary liquidity to the tune of ₹87,000 crore from the banking system leading to credit becoming stricter by virtue. Daily net liquidity absorption averaged ₹2.5 lakh crore during FY23 (up to 21 December 2022) as compared with ₹6.7 lakh crore in FY22. The Reserve Bank remained adroit and agile in liquidity management by conducting two-way operations.
The trading volume in Government securities (including T-Bills and SDLs) reached a two-year high of ₹27.7 lakh crore during Q2 FY23, registering a YoY growth of 6.3 per cent.
The GNPA ratio is tending to continue and is projected to drop further to 4.9 per cent in March 2023.
During the first half of FY23, the profitability of SCBs, measured in terms of Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Assets (ROA), improved significantly to levels last recorded in the fiscal year of 2014-15
As funds raised from the primary segment of domestic equity markets declined during FY23, reliance on bank credit for funding regular operations and capacity expansion increased.
Until September 30, 2022, 553 CIRPs have ended in resolution.
As per the RBI data, in FY 22, the total amount recovered by SCBs under IBC has been the highest compared to other channels such as Lok Adalat’s, SARFAESI Act and DRTs in this period.
the number of firms opting to list on the bourses increased by 37 per cent, though the amount raised declined to almost half of what was raised in the last year
April-November 2022, the amount of resources mobilised by the issuance of debt securities in the primary market increased by 5 per cent, compared to the corresponding period last year. The total number of issues in the same period also increased by 11 per cent.
The Indian stock market saw a resilient performance, with the bluechip index Nifty 50 registering a return of 3.7 per cent during the same period. The Nifty 50 – US dollar adjusted return also stood at -4.7 per cent, adjusting for the depreciation of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar.
The number of demat accounts rose sharply, 39 per cent higher by the end of November 2022 on YoY basis.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered disruptions in the supply of commodities, especially energy, base metals and food commodities. As a result, a sudden jump in the prices of crude oil and some base metals like Nickel and Aluminium was witnessed. The overall net investments by Foreign Portfolio Investors during FY23 registered an outflow of ₹16,153 crore at the end of December 2022 from an outflow of ₹5,578 crore during FY22 at the end of December 2021, with both the equity segment and the debt segment witnessing net FPI outflows. Insurance penetration in India increased steadily from 2.7 per cent around the turn of the millennium to 4.2 per cent in 2020 and remained the same in 2021. In advanced countries, the pension sector is substantial, partly stemming from a large share of formal salaried employment. While the state provides some basic pension, it is only sometimes funded and thus is a pay-as- you-go scheme relying on current government revenue for pension payments. It can thus be asserted that the government has consistently sought to adopt a Bismarckian style of social and economic welfare while ensuring that capital doesn't drain out from the economy in the process.
PRICE AND INFLATION
In the year FY23 retail inflation was mainly driven by higher food inflation which ranged between 4.2% to 8.6% between April and December 2022 triggered by the persistence of wheat inflation and Russia's war in Ukraine. There has been more downfall in urban inflation by 2.8% , especially in December 2022. The
Monthly trend of wholesale prices has witnessed a downward slide from its peak of 16.6% in May 2022 to 5% in December.
Owing to supply disruptions, Indian market for crude oil was at a peak of US $116/bbl which declined to US $78/bbl.
Foreign trade and External sector
Due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russia's oil export to India have been highest which makes up 25% of all oil imports to India.
Due to Western sanctions on Russia many countries of the NATO and EU bloc have stopped their imports from Russia. To counter their sanctions Russia started selling discounted oil to India and China.
FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
India's free trade agreement was also hindered with the United Kingdom due to racist comments made by their respective foreign minister Suella Braverman. Talks with gulf nations are underway for a new Free trade agreement.
THE CHINA CONUNDRUM
In order to counter it's rival China and to counterweight it's Belt and road initiative India's has made deals with several other nations like Iran, Oman, Indonesia etc.
India has made agreements with these nations to build ports in their countries to have some economical influence in the Indian Ocean and strait of Hormuz. If we look at this geographically India has made a necklace to compete China.
FOREIGN AID
India has also sent aid to Turkiye to help them survive the serious earthquake they are going through. Aid to Afghanistan was also sent by India to gain influence in the country Medicine and food have been sent to have a positive image of India.
MEDICINE EXPORT INDUSTRY
18 children have died in Uzbekistan after consuming Indian made syrup by manufacturer Marion biotech pvt ltd. Uzbekistan health ministry has stated.
Recently 70 children in West Africa have died after consuming contaminated cough syrup linked to India. Authorities in Delhi had to shut down the factory linked to the cough syrup. World Health organisation also issued warning against the Indian made syrups.
HINDENBURG REPORT
On 24 January US based Financial short seller company Hindenburg published a report on Adani enterprises accusing them of stock manipulations, tax evasion. After this report was published the share price of Adani enterprises plunged. 7 of the companies of Adani enterprises lost 100 billion dollars. This loss is not bad for just Adani enterprises but also to the Indian economy. Public companies like SBI and LIC have invested their money in Adani enterprises if their stake is in loss then the general public will lose their money in the clash between Adani enterprises and Hindenburg. If we look at the history of Hindenburg their reports have been legit.
CONCLUSION
Due to the war in Ukraine India will make gains in oil and imports. Whatever conclusion the war in Ukraine will have India and China will win economically.
We may see a Free trade agreement with the gulf nations which will increase our business with countries like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates etc. Saudi Arabia may also join BRICS in the future.
Due to foreign aid given by India to countries like Turkiye and Afghanistan India will get a positive attitude of the general population of these countries which can bolster our ties in the future.
India's Pharmaceutical industry may take a hit this year due to defected syrups India may need to form an organisation like the FDA in USA.
India will have more influence in the Strait of Hormuz and Indian Ocean in the near future to counterweight it's rival China.
The report given by Hindenburg may turn out bad for the general public for India.
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